Nolan Arenado’s future in Colorado — or maybe the dearth thereof — will probably be one of many foremost storylines all through the 2020-21 offseason. The 29-year-old has publicly voiced dissatisfaction with the group up to now, and one other poor season adopted feedback from proprietor Richard Monfort that foreshadow a tight-budgeted winter don’t determine to enhance the connection.
On this week’s offseason outlook for the Rockies, I laid out the explanations that buying and selling Arenado isn’t so simple as some would possibly suppose. On the floor, a five-time All-Star who has received eight Gold Gloves in eight MLB seasons whereas hitting .293/.349/.541 and averaging practically 5 WAR per season looks like a participant who’d be extremely in demand. As with every participant, nonetheless, Arenado’s commerce worth is inextricably linked to his contractual standing, and the franchise-record extension he signed in 2019 muddies the water.
Arenado continues to be owed a hefty six years and $199M between now and the 2026 season. He’s due $35M in 2021, and his contract permits him to decide out of the remaining 5 years and $164M at season’s finish. Any membership that acquires Arenado acknowledges there’s an opportunity he’ll solely be round for one season. If Arenado performs on the degree an buying crew would hope for upon making the commerce, that crew is aware of there’s an opportunity he’ll decide out. The COVID-19 pandemic has clearly modified the monetary outlook for a lot of golf equipment and altered the sports activities economic system, however Arenado would absolutely have a look at Anthony Rendon’s seven-year, $245M contract and ponder whether he may method that degree with a giant 2021 exhibiting.
However, Arenado had his worst season ever on the plate in 2020. That’s sufficient to already make some golf equipment cautious, notably as a result of if that proves to be the beginning of a pattern they’d be caught paying greater than $33M yearly to a participant on the decline. There’s no manner Arenado opts out if he repeats this previous season’s .253/.303/.454 output, so there’s inherent threat of being caught with an albatross contract right here.
A commerce is additional sophisticated by the truth that the Rockies would in fact need to obtain high quality younger expertise in return. The optics of dumping Arenado merely to be rid of his wage can be terribly poor for Monfort and common supervisor Jeff Bridich. Given the danger related to the contract and Arenado’s shaky 2020 marketing campaign, it’s frankly troublesome to think about a crew taking up Arenado’s contract and parting with appreciable prospect capital. The Rockies may need to pay down a few of the deal and/or take one other sizable wage on in return in the event that they hope to discover a palatable commerce.
As if that context doesn’t complicate issues sufficient, additionally contemplate that Arenado has a full no-trade clause baked into the deal. He might welcome the the chance for a contemporary begin, nevertheless it’s potential he’ll have to be incentivized to waive that clause as effectively. Topping issues off is that he’s not even the one All-Star third baseman who might be moved this winter. The Cubs determine to significantly entertain the potential for buying and selling Kris Bryant. A former Rookie of the Yr and NL MVP, Bryant is coming off a down season of his personal however has the same ceiling with none of Arenado’s long-term threat. Bryant is in his remaining yr of arbitration and is a free agent subsequent winter. Just one crew can get Bryant, in fact, so groups that miss out may flip to Arenado. It’s additionally potential that some golf equipment want the Arenado gamble — long-term threat and all. Regardless, Bryant’s presence in the marketplace performs a consider any potential Arenado talks.
Suffice to say, buying and selling Arenado is a frightening job for the Rockies. Based mostly on title worth alone, one would possibly suppose practically each crew can be inclined to look, however the majority of golf equipment across the recreation could be written off virtually instantly. We will rule out low-spending golf equipment just like the Indians, Pirates, Rays, Athletics and Marlins, as Arenado’s contract can be thought of too extravagant for his or her budgets. The D-backs are nonetheless paying Zack Greinke to play for another person and traded Paul Goldschmidt away somewhat than assembly his $130M extension value — far lower than the $199M owed to Arenado.
The Brewers already gave a mega-deal to Christian Yelich and wouldn’t threat a second one. The Angels signed Rendon to the aforementioned $245M deal final winter, and the Twins are very seemingly out after inking Josh Donaldson for $92M. Cincinnati has Eugenio Suarez at third base and possibly couldn’t abdomen paying a mixed $60M to Arenado and Joey Votto anyhow, as phonetically pleasing as that pairing would possibly in any other case be. The Astros have Alex Bregman at third base and will conceivably transfer him to a different place, however that’s a attain with Carlos Correa locked in at shortstop. The Phillies look set on the corners with Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins.
We will additionally eradicate any golf equipment which are within the midst of a rebuild. The Rangers look like simply beginning down that highway, and the Orioles aren’t far sufficient alongside within the course of to contemplate a splash of this magnitude. The Tigers and Royals are hoping to quickly emerge from rebuilding efforts, however this doesn’t appear seemingly for both until it’s a part of a sudden and sudden all-in push. Elsewhere within the AL Central, the White Sox have a powerful infield as is and would in all probability want to allocate assets to the rotation and/or proper area. Perhaps they may strive Yoan Moncada in proper, however Arenado is one thing of a sq. peg in a spherical gap for the South Siders.
Over in St. Louis, the Cardinals have been related to a heavy-hitting third baseman for years, be it Arenado or Donaldson. It hasn’t come to cross but, and whereas the necessity very arguably nonetheless exists after Matt Carpenter floundered by a troublesome 2020 season, it’s exhausting to think about the Cardinals including a contract of this magnitude. This is similar crew that simply declined Kolten Wong’s $12.5M possibility within the title of monetary flexibility and the identical membership that appears to be grappling with whether or not it could actually afford to re-sign franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. Proprietor Invoice DeWitt Jr. openly lamented the baseball trade’s lack of profitability earlier this spring and extra just lately offered a really reserved evaluation of his membership’s payroll outlook.
That’s an entire lot of groups that don’t appear prone to soar in on Arenado, so let’s flip to run by some golf equipment which may not be instantly dominated out.
Mets: Now backed by baseball’s richest proprietor and all of a sudden spared the $20.25M they beforehand owed to Robinson Cano in 2021, the Mets are seemingly related to each huge fish on the free-agent and commerce markets alike. Arenado would add an all-world defender to a membership that is protection has been depressing for a number of years working. Incumbents J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil are strong choices, however McNeil can play second with Cano suspended and Arenado ought to be a giant improve over Davis. The Mets may conceivably even put Davis in a package deal to accumulate Arenado, as he’d give the Rox a controllable, high quality different with a pleasant bat.
Nationals: The lack of Rendon was clearly felt all through the Nationals’ lineup in 2020, as Carter Kieboom wasn’t in a position to step up and fill the void. The Nats have Max Scherzer’s contract off the books after the 2021 season and will reallocate these long-term {dollars} to Arenado whereas entrusting Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin to entrance the rotation. Washington’s payroll ranks towards the highest of the league on a yearly foundation, and GM Mike Rizzo isn’t afraid to make high-priced splashes. Including Arenado would block Kieboom at third base, maybe pushing him to second base or making him expendable in a commerce — be it this hypothetical deal or one other swap.
Braves: The Braves don’t have a transparent third baseman in gentle of Austin Riley’s struggles, making this a strong on-paper match. Nevertheless, that is the precise sort of transfer common supervisor Alex Anthopoulos has prevented since coming to Atlanta. He eschewed a long-term dedication to Josh Donaldson regardless of appreciable fan backlash and has but to accumulate any participant on greater than a three-year deal. The seven- and eight-year offers for Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. had been pre-arbitration bargains — the polar reverse of paying top-of-the-market worth for a famous person already approaching his thirtieth birthday. Moreover, the membership will seemingly nonetheless must put aside some cash to increase Freddie Freeman. This will probably be a continuously advised touchdown spot for Arenado, however contextually, it doesn’t really feel as sturdy because it seems to be at first look.
Blue Jays: Normal supervisor Ross Atkins has already talked about buying “elite” gamers this winter, because the Jays have watched a powerful younger core emerge on the MLB degree. Incumbent third baseman Travis Shaw is an apparent non-tender candidate, and whereas the Jays have some interesting children down on the farm, a wholesome Arenado is healthier than the ceiling of nearly any third base prospect. The Blue Jays quietly have fairly a bit of monetary flexibility, they usually may attempt to ship Randal Grichuk again to Colorado as one of many items to offset a portion of the load of Arenado’s contract (and fill a necessity for the Rockies on the similar time).
Dodgers: A crew with pockets as deep because the Dodgers and a farm system to match is in fact going to be talked about in connection to any high-profile commerce goal. The Dodgers have been linked to Arenado up to now, and this morning whereas I used to be ending this very piece, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi wrote about their continued curiosity. Including Arenado would successfully displace free agent Justin Turner, who’s revered within the L.A. clubhouse, however no less than for the second, there’s a emptiness on the sizzling nook at Dodger Stadium. After all, the Dodgers simply locked up Mookie Betts on his personal mega-deal and might not be eager on issuing one other. And it’s anybody’s guess whether or not the Rockies would truly contemplate buying and selling probably the greatest gamers in franchise historical past to a division nemesis.
Giants: Talking of division rivals — the Giants look to be popping out of their very own rebuilding effort and have the cash to tackle Arenado’s contract. Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Johnny Cueto will all be off the books after the 2021 season, leaving the long-term payroll outlook huge open. Veteran Evan Longoria is a roadblock at third base for the second, however the Giants may ship him again to Colorado as a way of each giving the Rockies a ready-made alternative and likewise offsetting a few of the appreciable price they’d be taking up with Arenado’s contract. Youthful expertise would absolutely have to be added to make this interesting for the Rockies, in fact. President of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has spoken of a concentrate on the pitching employees and solely “complementary” position players, however he’s additionally mentioned he hopes to return to the playoffs as quickly as 2021.
Padres: We would as effectively get a bit bizarre and spherical out the division-rival trifecta with an off-the-wall Padres suggestion. The Friars have already got Manny Machado and his $300M contract at third base and younger famous person Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop. There have been no less than rumblings of probably shifting Tatis to the outfield within the occasion of a Francisco Lindor acquisition by the Padres, nonetheless. Including Arenado would require an much more elaborate place shuffle, with Machado going again to shortstop and Tatis shifting to the outfield grass. It’s an extended shot that will seemingly require the Rockies taking a nasty contract again — e.g. Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer — with the Padres chipping in some notable younger expertise. We’ve all realized by now to not rely San Diego common supervisor A.J. Preller out of any situation, however there’d be an entire lot of shifting components to get Arenado all the way down to the Gaslamp Quarter.
Yankees: Just like the Dodgers, the Yankees are virtually an compulsory entrant in a lot of these workout routines. They’re seeking to pare again payroll this winter after spending at report ranges in 2020, and their major focus seems to be on retaining DJ LeMahieu. Arenado can be a luxurious somewhat than a necessity — and a dangerous one at that — however the Yankees aren’t brief on MLB-ready expertise they may ship again. Both of Gio Urshela or Miguel Andujar may enchantment to the Rockies, and the crew has some younger pitching to work in as effectively. Arenado can be a troublesome match with each Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton on the books long run, in fact.
Cubs: It appears unlikely that the Cubs would tackle a serious contract after consecutive offseasons of successfully sitting out free company. Proprietor Tom Ricketts has spent two years claiming to not have further assets to allocate to the roster and earlier this summer season proclaimed that possession losses in the course of the pandemic have been “biblical” in nature. The Cubs simply laid off 100-some workers, per The Athletic. However they’re additionally anticipated to be lively in reshaping the roster below new president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer, they usually may jettison sufficient wage that cramming Arenado onto the books doesn’t appear not possible. Some mixture of Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish and Willson Contreras might be moved this winter. Becoming Arenado into the image nonetheless might be a stretch, although.
Pink Sox: Boston already has Rafael Devers on the sizzling nook, however there’s been some hypothesis about him sliding throughout the diamond attributable to defensive struggles at third base. It’s admittedly powerful to see the Pink Sox taking up a contract like this lower than one yr after buying and selling Mookie Betts and dumping David Price’s contract to be able to limbo below the posh tax line, however they’re a big-market crew with enormous payroll capabilities and possibly don’t need to be a division afterthought for too lengthy.
Mariners: Saving essentially the most enjoyable suggestion for final, let’s not overlook Jerry Dipoto’s means to shock the baseball world. “Dealer Jerry” has rebuilt this group’s farm system in a matter of two years and introduced a lot of attention-grabbing younger gamers to Seattle — a lot of whom have now reached the majors. Including Arenado to an infield that already has two younger Gold Glove winners in J.P. Crawford and Evan White would give the membership a protection for the ages, and earlier than anybody questions whether or not Seattle can afford to pay Arenado $33M per yr, contemplate that as of 2022, the one gamers on the books for the M’s are Marco Gonzales ($5.75M) and White ($1.4M). Bringing Arenado into the combo seemingly pushes Kyle Seager to designated hitter for the ultimate yr of his contract, which could be for the perfect given his declining defensive metrics.
That’s an entire lot of phrases on buying and selling Arenado, nevertheless it’s vital to keep in mind that a deal coming collectively shouldn’t be thought of a given. Arenado shouldn’t be a Francisco Lindor-esque assure to be traded previous to Opening Day because of the complexity of his contract and the problem the Rockies may have getting what they’d deem truthful worth in return. Any of the highlighted groups on the finish of this train may emerge as a rumored commerce accomplice, although some are apparent reaches. In my view, the perfect golf equipment for the Rockies to work with are the Mets, Nationals, Dodgers, Blue Jays and, sure, the Mariners. That’s to not say any of these golf equipment are in talks or are prone to purchase him, nonetheless.
After all, any commerce depends upon the extent to which these golf equipment consider Arenado can rebound from a mediocre yr on the plate and the extent to which they’re keen to gamble on the evident draw back that’s inherently woven into his contract. Buying and selling Arenado isn’t so simple as some will make it out to be this winter, nevertheless it’s a actuality the Rockies should discover.
