After 5 weeks crammed with meals critique, vlogs, basketball video games, and 0 (!!) Covid-19 positives, the NBA playoffs are about to start. Seven out of eight sequence are locked in, with solely the Lakers awaiting the winner of the Portland Trailblazers and Memphis Grizzlies play-in sport(s).
Whereas all the sequence may have their share of storylines, maybe probably the most intriguing will come from the center of the Japanese Convention bracket. The Philadelphia 76ers will meet the longtime rival Boston Celtics because the 3-6 matchup.
With out additional ado, let’s leap right into a breakdown of the sequence primarily based on some arbitrarily created classes.
Projected Starters
Boston: Kemba Walker – Jaylen Brown – Jayson Tatum – Gordon Hayward – Daniel Theis
Philadelphia: Shake Milton – Josh Richardson – Tobias Harris – Al Horford – Joel Embiid
The harm to Ben Simmons definitely throws a wrench into what the Sixers can do defensively towards Boston. Simmons’ protection was sensible this season and certain will earn him first-team All-defense honors. He shadowed Tatum in every of their 4 regular-season video games, holding him to level totals of 21, 15, 15 and 25 on a mixed 24 for 72 (33 %) taking pictures.
With out Simmons, the Sixers should get artistic to match-up with the Celtic’s a number of scorers. Richardson is their finest guard defender, so he ought to get many of the Walker duties. Milton, whose protection has been lower than stellar, could be left to protect the bulkier Brown. Which means Harris, who’s an improved however slow-footed defender, would get the honour of hounding the 22-year-old All-Star.
Horford will guard Hayward whereas Embiid will patrol the center towards Theis, rounding out the match-ups of the beginning 5.
Milton on Brown is an obvious mismatch, and will probably be attention-grabbing to see how typically the Celtics let him go to work within the publish. Tatum shouldn’t be too fretted on the sight of Harris both, and Hayward might attempt to take the slower Horford off the dribble.
On the opposite facet, the Celtics can match-up extra conventionally. Walker will guard the opposing level guard Milton whereas Brown will guard Richardson. Tatum will guard Harris throughout from him, leaving Hayward tasked with guarding the larger Horford. Embiid and Theis will keep matched up within the center.
The one mismatch there may be Horford towards the smaller Hayward, although the Sixers could also be cautious of resorting to Horford post-ups as a main supply of offense. The Celtics have a transparent benefit from the opening tip.
Benches
Philadelphia: Alec Burks – Matisse Thybulle – Furkan Korkmaz – Glenn Robinson III – Mike Scott
Boston: Marcus Good – Brad Wanamaker – Enes Kanter – Semi Ojeleye – Grant Williams
Coaches are fickle within the post-season, so a few of these names might not see the court docket, however the first few on there are prone to play important roles in how this sequence seems.
Burks has been a microwave for the Sixers within the bubble. He excels at pulling-up from deep and the midrange off the dribble, a ability that the workforce sorely lacks. Sadly for him, he may even see a variety of Good when he is available in. Good’s stellar protection may mitigate the bench-scoring that Burks would deliver.
Thybulle could possibly be an X-Issue reserve for the Sixers. Head coach Brett Brown acknowledged as a lot in his post-game presser Friday evening, saying in regards to the rookie, “He’s going to be big, as a defensive requirement … I can not understate that.”
With the beforehand outlined defensive match-ups leaving room for concern, Thybulle will see a hefty function on this sequence. He’ll see time guarding Walker in addition to Tatum. The important thing for Thybulle will probably be to remain disciplined and defend with out fouling. If he can do this and knock down some threes when open, he may discover himself within the crunch-time lineup.
After Good, the Celtics bench can look a bit of skinny. Kanter will seemingly be used because the back-up middle as he supplies extra resistance to an Embiid post-up, however he can fall flat guarding pick-and-rolls. Ojeleye is a defensive stopper that may defend the likes of Harris, however his offense will come and go.
Each groups might characteristic brief rotations as this sequence goes alongside, however the edge right here barely belongs to the Celtics on the again of Good’s confirmed productiveness.
Teaching
Philadelphia: Brett Brown
Boston: Brad Stevens
Stevens and Brown each started their tenures with the 2013-14 season. That they had met as soon as earlier than within the playoffs when the Celtics dispatched the Sixers in 5 video games again in 2018.
Stevens is a top-tier coach, whereas Brown has handled rumors of dismissal since these playoffs. Whereas Stevens is the higher coach, Brown did maintain his personal towards Nick Nurse final season within the sequence towards the Toronto Raptors.
On this sequence, the teaching choices created from sport to sport will probably be put below a microscope by every of those workforce’s massive native media base. If issues go poorly on Brown’s finish, the scrutiny may result in his dismissal.
Probably the most essential choices Brown should make will probably be on the defensive finish. Because of the mismatches throughout the board, the Sixers should jiggle with their defensive schemes.
The Sixers normally play drop protection when defending pick-and-rolls. The scheme includes the defender guarding the ball-handler preventing over the display and chasing the ball-handler from behind, whereas the large man guarding the screener dops into the paint to guard from a layup or a lob. The purpose right here is to goad the ball-handler into settling for a mid-range leap shot whereas contesting it from behind.
This scheme works when the guard defenders are energetic and engaged, because it takes a sure power stage to battle over a display and get again into the play to stop an open floater. Simmons, Richardson and Thybulle have been nice this season at executing this.
With out Simmons, although, there could possibly be holes. Harris doesn’t have the footwork and restoration velocity to get round a display and contest. Nor does Milton, who tends to get taken out of performs when picked. If the Celtics begin to feast with floaters and open jumpers, Brown might want to regulate.
He may change to a entice, the place the person guarding the screener rushes out to double workforce the ball handler earlier than recovering again to the rollover. The adjustment would pressure the Celtics’ ball-handlers to make crisp passes out of these performs to benefit from a 4-on-3. Brown may additionally go for switching, however this would go away gamers like Embiid and Horford to protect wings one-on-one, and it may additionally result in the Celtics searching for out Milton or Korkmaz.
Stevens may have his personal choices to make on protection. The Sixers run post-ups greater than any workforce within the league, and by a big margin. Embiid carries these numbers, however Horford and Harris prefer to again down smaller gamers when given an opportunity.
How typically the Celtics ship a double for these post-ups, and the way properly the Sixers bigs deal with them, will probably be a pivotal battle to look at.
Embiid has improved his passing out of double groups within the bubble, however count on the Celtics to check him additional in that regard. Stevens must be sending assist from each path to indicate Embiid’s totally different seems to be.
It might be smart to protect Horford Straight up, as his passing is a energy and he gained’t do as a lot injury out of repeated post-ups. Harris, in the meantime, is a weak passer, however the Celtics have the gamers to protect him one-on-one, so a double workforce might solely are available in case of an emergency.
Each coaches may have robust choices concerning their rotation, which could possibly be shortened to as few as eight gamers if the sequence goes the space.
Statistics to Watch
Within the 4 video games these two groups performed this season, two statistics jumped out: rebounding and free throw fee.
Within the three video games the Sixers gained, they posted offensive rebounding charges of 32 %, 33 % and 31 %. These charges have been about ten factors greater than the Celtics in these video games, per CleaningtheGlass. Within the sport that Boston gained this season, the offensive rebounding charges have been very comparable, about 27 % for every.
Rebounding will probably be essential for this sequence because the Sixers attempt to maintain the tempo. With out Simmons, it will require Embiid going into overdrive down low. He’s able to this briefly bursts, however it’s unclear if he can maintain that type of effort for heavy minutes.
The Sixers gained the free throw battle of their three wins as properly, and this will probably be one other key because the workforce tries to advance to spherical two. Within the sport gained by the Celtics, they paraded to the road, placing up a free throw fee of 36.5 %.
If the Sixers defend with out fouling and get to the road typically, they may give themselves an opportunity to beat this Boston workforce. If the Celtics match the Sixers within the paint, it could possibly be a brief sequence.
Chippiness Potential
Each good playoff sequence comes with a bit of animosity. For this sequence to get feisty, will probably be on the backs of two gamers: Marcus Good and Joel Embiid.
These two have had a historical past of stepping into fracases up to now, and the playoff depth is superb tinder for potential extracurriculars. Exterior of the 2 common suspects, this sequence could also be moderately tame.
Harris, Horford and Milton are usually mild-mannered. Brown, Tatum, and Walker take the excessive street as properly. All it takes is one arduous foul to spark disdain, however it’s unlikely we see any all-out brawls.
Closing Prediction
Whereas the Sixers have probably the perfect participant within the sequence in Embiid, the remainder of the roster with out Simmons goes to have hassle dealing with the Celtics scorers. Barring a dominant efficiency from the middle, count on the Celtics to maintain enterprise in spherical one—Celtics in 5.
