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Let’s check out all 12 NFL contests slated for Sunday’s DraftKings Sportsbook Pro Football Week 12 Spreads Pool, together with my 5 private favorites.
The Decide: Jaguars +6.5
The Browns are probably the most fraudulent 7-3 groups in current reminiscence. They personal a Pythagorean win expectation of simply 4.5-5.5, they usually rank simply twenty second in Soccer Outsiders’ general DVOA. They’ve benefitted from a cupcake schedule and a few poor climate in current weeks, which advantages them as a result of they’re such a run-heavy squad.
They’ve one other comfortable matchup this week vs. the Jaguars, however I feel this line is just too excessive. The Jaguars had been embarrassed final week by the Steelers, however they boast among the finest cross rushes within the league. Jake Luton wasn’t capable of deal with that strain and their protection couldn’t maintain up in opposition to Ben Roethlisberger.
The Jags have determined to bench Luton in favor of Mike Glennon this week, and that call ought to assist Jacksonville’s offense. Glennon actually isn’t a world-beater, however he’s a transparent improve over Luton. He’ll additionally face a a lot simpler matchup vs. Cleveland. The Browns have been mediocre by way of their cross rush this season they usually’ll be with out Myles Garrett on this contest. His 9.5 sacks are tied for probably the most within the league, so that could be a enormous absence.
I’d desire getting the Jaguars at +7.0 – which is what they’re listed on at DraftKings Sportsbook – however I like them at +6.5 as properly. Glennon ought to be capable of do sufficient to maintain this sport aggressive.
The Decide: Titans +4.5
This sport has moved has seen some line motion to start out the week. The Titans are down to simply three-point underdogs, so we’re grabbing a bit little bit of unfold worth with them on this Sportsbook Pool.
The large motive for the road motion is the accidents that the Colts are coping with at the moment. Ryan Kelly and Quentin Nelson are each listed as questionable for this contest, and the standing of these two gamers might be large. The Titans don’t have an imposing cross rush, however the Colts’ offense is constructed round their robust offensive line.
Moreover, Phillip Rivers is listed as questionable after limping to the end line final week vs. the Packers. He was clearly hobbled in that contest, however Rivers is as robust as they arrive on the QB place. I absolutely anticipate him to be within the lineup, however he’s probably going to be even much less cellular than typical. That makes enjoying behind a shorthanded offensive line even scarier than it usually is.
The Decide: Giants -5.5
The Giants undoubtedly aren’t an excellent soccer crew, however they’re in all probability higher than you assume. They’ve gained three of their previous 5 video games, and their two losses over that timeframe have come by simply three complete factors. A type of losses was additionally in opposition to the Buccaneers, who stay among the finest groups within the NFC.
It is a totally different dynamic for the Giants, who’re important street favorites in opposition to a shorthanded Bengals’ squad. The Giants have been favored in only one earlier contest this season they usually had been unable to cowl in that state of affairs.
Nonetheless, it’s laborious to not like them this week. Not solely is Joe Mixon going to overlook one other contest after being positioned on IR, however Joe Burrow goes to overlook a major time frame after tearing his ACL and MCL.
With out Burrow, it’s laborious to ascertain the Bengals being very aggressive. Their offensive line has not been good this season, rating simply twenty fourth in adjusted sack charge, and now Brandon Allen might be enjoying behind that unit. Allen has appeared in three video games all through his profession and the outcomes weren’t spectacular. He accomplished simply 46.4% of his passes, leading to an adjusted yards per try of 5.8. He additionally tossed two interceptions in comparison with simply three touchdowns.
The Giants’ protection is actually not a juggernaut, however they need to be capable of shut down such a mediocre participant. I’ve no doubts that the Giants will put up factors on this matchup — Cincy ranks thirtieth in defensive DVOA — so they need to in the end be capable of cowl the unfold.
The Decide: Raiders -2.5
The Raiders are coming off a loss final week vs. the Chiefs, however they had been spectacular in that outing. They really led by three factors with roughly 1:30 left within the fourth quarter, however they had been in the end unable to maintain Patrick Mahomes from scoring the game-winning landing.
The sharps clearly took discover of that efficiency as a result of the Raiders have been one of many highest-bet groups of the week from a greenback perspective. That has brought about them to maneuver to three-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, however we will nonetheless seize them at -2.5 on this Sportsbook Pool.
The standing of Julio Jones might be value monitoring. The Falcons’ offense has plummeted with Jones out or restricted this season, averaging simply 16.75 factors in 4 contests. With Jones at full energy, the Falcons have averaged 30.8 factors per sport in six contests.
Jones has been restricted at observe this week, however it feels like he’s going to be a real game-time determination on Sunday. If he’s out, the Raiders are certainly one of my favourite performs of the week. I nonetheless just like the Raiders if Julio is energetic as a result of there’s no assure he’ll be at full energy, however my confidence degree would lower barely.
The Decide: Buccaneers +3.5
That is undoubtedly the perfect sport of the week and it’s additionally fascinating from a betting perspective. These are two of the perfect groups within the league, however it might in all probability shock you that the Bucs are literally the higher squad by way of DVOA. Tampa Bay at the moment ranks second in that division because of a dominant protection, whereas the Chiefs rank fourth.
Betting in opposition to Mahomes and the Chiefs is clearly scary, however I do assume it’s the proper determination on this matchup. The Chiefs haven’t precisely dominated not too long ago and their offense could not be capable of bail them out late vs. the Buccaneers.
Tom Brady additionally suits a ton of worthwhile tendencies on this matchup. He’s coming off a loss in his final contest, and Brady has posted a document of 39-14 in opposition to the unfold in that state of affairs since 2003. That’s good for a ridiculous 73.6% cowl charge and features a 3-0 mark following a loss in his first yr with the Bucs.
Backing Brady as an underdog has additionally traditionally been insanely worthwhile. He’s gone 22-9-2 in that state of affairs, which is sweet for a 37.2% ROI. He’s solely been a house underdog 4 instances since 2003 — which is loopy in its personal proper — however Brady has gone 3-1 in these contests.
Remaining Video games
Listed below are the groups I’m focusing on for the remainder of the Sunday video games. Bear in mind, we’re trying to beat the competitors and climb up the leaderboard, so I’ll be trying to achieve leverage on the sector and fade the general public in conditions the place I don’t see an enormous edge on the unfold.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Decide: Chargers +5.5
Miami Dolphins (-6.5) @ New York Jets
Decide: Dolphins -6.5
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Decide: Panthers +3.5
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ New England Patriots
Decide: Patriots +2.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)
Decide: 49ers +7.5
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) @ Denver Broncos
Decide: Saints -5.5
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-8.5)
Decide: Bears +8.5
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I’m a promoter at DraftKings and am additionally an avid fan and consumer (my username is mlamarca) and should typically play on my private account within the video games that I provide recommendation on. Though I’ve expressed my private view on the video games and techniques above, they don’t essentially replicate the view(s) of DraftKings and I may additionally deploy totally different gamers and techniques than what I like to recommend above.
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